Rates aren't coming down soon. Here's how top agents are adjusting.

At our September Market Roundtable, I told our agents something I would rather not have to say: higher interest rates are not going away anytime soon. I wish they were. But when you look at what is actually driving them, the reason becomes clear, and so does what we need to do about it.

Why rates are staying up

The Fed raised its rate a quarter point in September, the first increase in three years. It watches three numbers when it decides: jobs, GDP and inflation. Inflation is the one it cannot get under control, and the cause is not eggs. It is oil.

Almost everything we buy reaches us by truck, plane or delivery van, and that runs on gas and diesel. With oil over $100 a barrel, that cost shows up in everything. Add the billions being spent on AI every single day, and you have inflation driven by forces the Fed cannot touch with a rate decision.

So unless something changes that none of us can see yet, the chance that rates come down in the next six months is slim to none.

Here is what I want you to hear. Home prices have not changed much. What buyers and sellers cannot stand is the volatility. That is a problem we can answer, if we prepare for it.

Most agents have never sold in a buyer's market

From 2008 to 2023, it was a seller's market almost the whole time. Most agents in our offices were licensed after 2008. They have only ever known the buffet.

That has changed. In metro Phoenix, most of our communities are now buyer's markets, and supply has moved above demand for the first time since the last recession. Your sellers have not caught up either. Many are still pricing like it is 2023.

Lead the listing conversation with data

Before you talk about price, show the seller what is happening. Here is what the numbers looked like in metro Phoenix this August:

• 59% of the homes that sold had a price reduction.
• 59% of sales included concessions to the buyer, with a median of $10,165. That is the highest share since 1961.
• Only 59% of listings made it to the closing table, the lowest in 16 years.
• The longer a home sits, the more it sells below list. Thirty days in, the discount is about 5%.

Then ask two questions. "Would that surprise you?" And, "Why do you think that is happening?" Let them get there themselves. Then show them your proven plan.

That plan starts with price and condition, because your seller is in a beauty contest and a pricing war at the same time. For the first time in history, a new build can cost less than a resale home, so a resale has to show better to compete. And it includes a pre-inspection, so nothing surprises them once they are under contract.

Point concessions at the buyer's rate

If your seller is likely to give a buyer around $10,000 at closing anyway, ask a better question: would it make sense to put that money toward an interest rate buydown instead?

A buydown pays the buyer's lender to lower their interest rate for the first year or more. The buyer still has to qualify at the full rate, but the payment drops when it matters most, and if rates fall later, they can refinance. Our lending partner at Envoy is offering a 1% buydown for the first year, and on a $400,000 loan, about $5,000 more stretches that lower rate to two or three years.

Then market it. Put the lower rate on your listing flyer and your sign rider so your listing stands out from every other home the buyer is touring. We have not had to sell listings like this in eight or ten years. Now we do.

Help buyers lock, not wait

A buyer waiting for rates to drop is betting on the wrong side. If they lock a 90-day rate now, even before they have found the home, they are protected. If rates fall later, they refinance. If they wait 90 days instead, the odds are the rate will be higher, not lower.

Walk them through the cost of waiting with their own numbers. Most people do not act because they are afraid. The first step out of fear is understanding.

Learn these conversations now

This is the conversation we will be having about pricing listings and getting buyers off the fence for the next nine months. The agents who learn it now will make more money and give their clients a better experience, in this market and every market after it.

Clarity brings peace. For your clients, and for you.

We put all of this into a short playbook you can use this week: the data to show at a listing appointment, the buydown conversation, and the buyer script. Download it below.